Study indicates S-Korea will be facing 85 percent population crash by 2125
(MENAFN) South Korea's population may shrink by as much as 85% over the next century if current demographic trends continue, according to a new report by the Korean Peninsula Population Institute for Future. The study underscores the nation's severe challenges with declining birth rates and a rapidly aging society.
The most optimistic projection still forecasts the population falling to 15.73 million by 2125—less than a third of today’s 51.68 million. The median estimate predicts a drop to 11.15 million, while the worst-case scenario sees the population plummeting to just 7.53 million—fewer people than currently live in Seoul.
Researchers used the internationally recognized cohort-component method, factoring in birth rates, death rates, and migration to project these outcomes. A key finding is the accelerating pace of decline: as each generation becomes smaller, there are fewer potential parents, compounding the downward trend.
In the most severe projection, South Korea could see 140 seniors (aged 65 and above) for every 100 working-age individuals by 2125. Currently, the ratio is about 30 seniors per 100 working-age people, indicating a looming shift toward a top-heavy population structure.
The study also noted that younger South Koreans are increasingly prioritizing financial stability and housing over relationships and family life. Rising economic pressures are a primary factor in decisions about marriage and having children, outweighing personal preference.
With the nation’s fertility rate stuck at just 0.75 as of 2024—far below the replacement level of 2.1—the report highlights the urgent demographic and economic challenges South Korea must address to avoid a population crisis.
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