US Consumer Resilience Set to Persist Into 2026
Fitch highlighted that consumer expenditure expanded by 0.6% in the first quarter of last year, increased 2.6% in the second quarter, and rose 3.5% year-on-year in the third quarter.
Household nominal disposable income experienced a 4.4% year-on-year rise in the final quarter of last year, driven by moderate job gains and steady nominal wage growth, the agency noted.
However, Fitch observed that real disposable income growth decelerated to 1.6% year-on-year in December 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, partly due to a weakening labor market.
“Nominal wage gains for higher-income households are now outpacing those for lower-income households, reinforcing the K-shaped narrative -- especially as inflation hits lower-income households harder,” Fitch stated.
The agency added that US consumers’ net worth climbed 3.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of last year, supported by persistent strength in equity markets, reaching an all-time high and providing a favorable boost to consumer expenditure.
Household debt-service burdens remained largely stable in the second quarter of 2025 at 11.3% of disposable income, according to Fitch, staying below the pre-pandemic level of 11.7%.
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